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The biggest question at this time is whether the price of RAM will rise in price or fall in price, since there is information in both directions.
This July, all the information that has appeared points to an increase in RAM prices. But a few hours ago, new information points to a sharp drop in prices and of course, one does not know what to think. It is very difficult to know what will happen, but everything points to an increase in agreed prices. There are a handful of manufacturers that produce chips for RAM, VRAM and SSD and that allows them to agree on prices.
Within this article we have compiled the most recent information regarding the RAM market. In May everything indicated that prices would continue to fall. But at the end of June and during this month, all the information points to the opposite case. We cannot tell you one thing for sure, but we will try to shed light.
[amazon_link asins=’B0134EW7G8,B07D1XCKWW,B07MGPH9R9,B01EI5Z2T6′ template=’ProductCarousel’ store=’hardwa028-21′ marketplace=’ES’ link_id=’9b865745-4450-41f3-aa12-fcb1cd836597′]Chronology of the information that appeared
- MAY 10, 2019: RAM price could plummet to clean up stock, before becoming prohibitive again
- JUNE 29, 2019: NAND Flash: Power outage causes wafers at Western Digital and Toshiba plants to fail
- JULY 5, 2019: South Korea: RAM and SSD prices could rise due to trade war with Japan
- JULY 12, 2019: RAM memory: The price of these units begins to rise due to tensions between South Korea and Japan
- JULY 17, 2019: RAM - SSD: They could increase the price in an agreed way between 10-15% in the coming weeks
- JULY 22, 2019: Toshiba: RAM memory price rise by 20% after the blackout a few weeks ago
- JULY 25, 2019: RAM: Analysts indicate that the price could fall up to 40%
A complex situation full of manipulations and conspiracies
After two years of rise and high prices for RAM, in mid-2018 the price began to fall. A price that rose artificially with the excuse of smartphone demand. The main manufacturers claimed a high demand, on the smartphone market and production limitations.
The smartphone market stalled and now it looks like it's in a sales recession. Users no longer change their smartphone so much and if they do, they look for cheap terminals. There has been a fall in the server market and a lack of stock of gaming processors by Intel. Factors that have caused manufacturers to not be able to output RAM memories.
A well-known situation in economics. When there is high demand and limited production that barely meets demand, prices go up. When there is low demand and there is production and / or stock of leftovers, prices go down. Theoretically we are in the second situation.
Blackouts, production cuts and border problems come to the rescue
It seems casual, but when RAM was back at reasonable prices, Yokkaichi blackout. This blackout in the Japanese province would have caused the Toshiba Memory and Western Digital facilities to stop. Such a blackout would have caused 9 Terabytes of RAM and NAND Flash to go to waste. In addition, restoring production would be costly and is scheduled for the end of this month.
Six days later, it is revealed that there are trade tensions between South Korea and Japan. South Korean judges would be sentencing Japanese companies to pay tens of millions. It all dates back to the Japanese invasion of the South Korean republic between 1919 and 1945. Both countries reached an agreement in 1965, leaving everything settled.
Because of this, the Japanese government would be delaying imports to South Korea. This is done with more thorough inspections. This causes the polyimides needed for LCD and OLED screens or photoresistors and hydrogen fluoride for RAMs and NANDs, which is produced in Japan, to be delayed by up to three months.
First information about price increases
On July 12 and 17, there are reports of increases in the price of RAM. Even on July 17 there is a 10-15% price increase range. On July 22, five days later, a 20% price hike by Toshiba is reflected. Something that could be extended to the entire industry.
With the background we have and taking into account that 70% of DRAM and NAND Flash memories are produced in South Korea, they point to a rise. A complicated situation.
DRAMeXchange further indicates that the 8Gigabit RAM DRAM chip was priced at $ 3.74 on July 19. On July 12 they were priced 15% lower and on July 5 they cost 23% less. The data clearly refutes the price hike.
Gartner bets on a price drop
Well now new data is arriving that points to something else. Gartner says that RAM prices could drop 40% overall. It is not clear what data it is based on, or if the report predates the problems that appeared this month. Everything suggests that in the end it will not be like that, but it is very difficult to position oneself.
Conclusion
Saying now if the price of RAM is going to go up or down is very complicated. If you had asked us yesterday, we would have pointed to a price increase, but today, who knows. Telling you to buy RAM is just as difficult as telling you not to. We could see a price rise in the coming weeks or a drop and pull our hair out for having made the wrong decision.
If you are going to build a new team because you need it or because you don't want to wait any longer, you are doing well. In case you want to take a risk and see how the market fluctuates, you can still win as you can lose.
