Much is said about the disappearance of hard drives, but several reports indicate that it is something especially exaggerated. According to a new analysis, hard drives will continue to dominate data centers, where total cost of ownership is paramount, and are expected to hold that position until at least 2028.
They contradict recent forecasts by at least one industry veteran. He claimed that hard drives were quickly becoming outdated, and wouldn't even be affordable for a few years. But it seems that this change will not come soon.
Hard drives will still be used in this decade
The new forecast comes from Coughlin Associates, focused on the storage industry. According to his estimate, the recent increase in SSD shipments will have little impact on total hard drive shipments for many years. The most recent analysis projects global shipments of SSDs, hard drives, and tape systems from August 2023 to 2028. Throughout that period, shipments of hard drives are projected to increase rather than stagnate or plummet.
The demand for storage capacity will increase during this five-year period, due to the rapid expansion of the use of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, media and entertainment, and medical use cases. But an unexpected economic downturn could alter this trajectory.
This forecast is the opposite of what the VP of R&D at flash-based data center company Pure Storage recently stated. In May, the company's vice president said that hard drives are still great despite being 67-year-old technology, but he says it's time to say goodbye. But it is clear that, once various costs such as electricity or space itself are increasingly decisive in favor of SSDs, data centers will begin to abandon hard drives.
